David Fuller's view Price trends, both current and historic, provide investors with not only perspective regarding timing, but also the relevance of any market opinion.

Gold bullion (weekly & daily) has seen three failed breaks above $1400 since last November, with the peak at $1431.25 on 7th December occurring on a key reversal day. This loss of upside momentum and ranging appears to be a mean reversion process back towards the medium-term uptrend approximated by the rising 200-day moving average. A break in the progression of higher reaction lows occurred in early January and there has been some additional erosion of near-term support recently. A clear break in this month's sequence of lower rally highs is now required to check the lower drift during the remainder of this pullback and consolidation phase.

Silver bullion (weekly & daily) surged up out of its long trading range in September, rallying by over 50% before the advance was checked by a large weekly key reversal. Silver is more overextended than gold, has now declined for the last three weeks and broke some lateral support near $28 on Thursday. Here also, a break in the progression of lower rally highs (best seen on the daily chart) is required to question current scope for additional sideways to lower ranging in silver's mean reversion towards the rising 200-day MA.

On current evidence, upside leadership in precious metals - when it next occurs - will be led by palladium (weekly & daily) and platinum (weekly & daily). However, watch the progression of higher reaction lows on palladium (best seen on the daily chart) as they are an import consistency characteristic for the short to medium-term uptrend and PA is still quite overextended relative to its MA. Also, watch the psychological $1800 level for platinum. Currently, we cannot be certain as to whether or not palladium and platinum will pull gold and silver higher over the next several weeks, or whether the latter two - where the bigger speculative positions are held - will pull the current relative strength leaders lower.

Wheat (weekly & daily) appears to be breaking up out of its range since August, completing the first step above the base formation. A close beneath $8.00 is now required to question this hypothesis, and below the last reaction low near $7.60 to confirm an upside failure. Although obviously not a technical point, the grain and bean complex continues to benefit from its bullish fundamental tailwind in the form of low stockpiles and uncertainty over next season's crops.

ASEAN stock market leaders, including Indonesia (weekly & daily), The Philippines (weekly & daily), Thailand (weekly & daily) and Singapore (weekly & daily) lost upside momentum in November and have been in a corrective phase subsequently. Only Malaysia (weekly & daily) managed to move somewhat higher but it is unlikely to advance on its own for very long and weakened today. Indonesia, as the leader on the way up and also the downside more recently is the one to watch most closely. Its mean reversion has taken it back to just above the 200-day moving average. The rising MA is a potential support level. However Indonesia and the other ASEAN markets will need to bounce from their MAs and break the progressions of lower rally highs, where evident, to signal that selling is abating and demand is regaining the upper hand.

Japan's indices saw some downward dynamics today, as you can see from daily charts for the Nikkei (weekly & daily), Topix Banks (weekly & daily) and even more clearly for the Second Section (weekly & daily). This has checked the advance for at least the short term and sustained moves above this week's highs would be required offset current scope for a further reaction and consolidation of recent strong gains.

India's Sensex Index (weekly & daily) has returned to an interesting area, combining mean reversion to the MA and approximately 1000 points above the large trading range evident below 18000. These are potential support levels but to feel more confident about the short-term outlook I would like to see some upward dynamics, not least from the Bombay Banks Index (weekly & daily) which also needs to break its progression of lower rally highs.

Nasdaq 100 (weekly & daily) has enjoyed another terrific run since the end of last August, leading western markets higher in the process. It looks temporarily overextended; it has faltered in the last three days and appears due for a further reaction. A new closing high would be required to question this hypothesis.


Report on soft commodities - My thanks to a subscriber for this item, relevant to Fullermoney's current interest in agricultural commodities. These markets are discussed in some detail in the Audio.


Historic Fullermoney Archive: FM22 End February 1986 - Japan's stock market was moving towards a leadership role in the secular bull market; you will see what proved to be one of the greatest ever buying opportunities in Singapore and this issue even has an upside down chart, which I wish I could say was the intentional error. Oh, the Dickensian days of cut and paste. I was about to depart on a seven-country Asian tour with The Chart Seminar.

Under the headline OPEC shoots the other foot, you will see that the 'Peak Oil' theory has been around for a very long time, only they had yet to call it that.

I discussed my Middle East trip in FM22, particularly Turkey, and my global tours with TCS were reaching their crescendo.


Quote of the week - On going somewhere:

"Nobody got anywhere in the world by simply being content."
Louis L'Amour